On Ten-Year Anniversary, Great Blackout Will “Probably Not” Reoccur

Ten years ago today, the largest machine ever built by humans unexpectedly collapsed and with it, some assumptions about modern technology. The Great Blackout of 2003 unplugged the power to an estimated 50 million people.

Could it happen again? That is always the question when people stop to look back at a momentous event.

A story from the Cleveland Plain Dealer says the answer from people who should know — those in charge of utility high voltage control centers, managers of huge swaths of the nation’s power grid and regulators with new authority — is a carefully worded “probably not.”

“It is much less likely to occur for the same reasons as it did then,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commissioner Tony Clark said in an interview Tuesday. He was referring in part to the large trees under FirstEnergy Corp.’s high voltage lines. An overheated line sagged into one of those trees and shorted out. That event is generally accepted as one of the most important mishaps leading to the blackout.

“But it could happen for other reasons,” Clark said. “Human error is still a possibility. You never say never with these sorts of things.”

Since Congress in 2005 ordered the FERC to develop regulations and gave the agency the power to fine rogue companies up to $1 million per day, close attention has been paid to what the industry calls “vegetation management.”

FirstEnergy, for example, is spending $45 million a year to keep its 16,000 miles of high-voltage transmission line corridors clear and even uses airborne saws to trim back trees encroaching from the sides.

FERC works hand-in-glove with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, or NERC, an older industry standards group that now helps FERC develop rules, sees that independent inspections are carried out and, if necessary, recommends that FERC fine utilities that don’t comply.

“We did not have a vegetation standard back then,” explained David Cook, senior counsel for NERC. “We were certified (to enforce) electric reliability in 2006. We made a large number of our standards mandatory. That has made a big difference.”

The NERC-FERC standards that became mandates included standards for tree trimming, staff training for control center operators, communication protocols for keeping in close touch with other utilities and regional grid managers and even technical specifications for equipment, Cook said.

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